by Sarah DeMaranville
Geneseoo Current
Seventeen years after Geneseo began investing in locally generated renewable electricity, the city's alternative energy projects have produced millions of kilowatt-hours of power, reduced electricity purchases and contributed to the community's energy supply.
But the financial return on that investment remains an important question.
Geneseo's two wind turbines have yet to recover their costs using the city's published avoided-cost rate. Based on available generation and financial records, the wind project remains approximately $1.3 million short of breaking even.
If both turbines are repaired and return to their historical average production, the wind portion of the city's alternative energy investment could reach break-even around 2029 or 2030.
That would be approximately two to three years after the final wind project bond payment, scheduled for February 2027.
The city's solar installation, meanwhile, has performed considerably closer to its original production expectations. Together, wind and solar supplied approximately 11.4% of Geneseo's electricity in 2024 and 2025.
The combined financial return from both projects cannot yet be determined from the available figures because the solar project's full costs and electricity value have not been included in the analysis.
How much electricity has Geneseo's alternative energy investment produced?
Geneseo's renewable energy portfolio includes two wind turbines and a solar installation, each designed to generate electricity locally and reduce the amount of power the municipal utility must purchase.
When the wind project was planned, the two turbines were expected to generate approximately 8.16 million kilowatt-hours annually, enough to supply about 12% of Geneseo's electricity at the time.
Actual wind production has averaged approximately 6.38 million kilowatt-hours per year, or 78% of the original projection.
No 12-month period in the available records has reached the projected output. The best year was 2022, when the turbines generated 7.43 million kilowatt-hours.
The original engineering estimate, prepared in October 2007, assumed the turbines would operate at approximately 31% of their maximum possible generating capacity. It also assumed they would be mechanically available 100% of the time.
Actual production has been closer to 24% of maximum capacity.
Mechanical problems have contributed to the difference. Turbine 2 experienced extended shutdowns in 2009–10 and 2011, while Turbine 1 was out of service for approximately two and a half months in 2017. Both turbines have experienced major problems in 2026.
The city's solar project has delivered results much closer to its original expectations.
Solar generation has averaged approximately 1.65 million kilowatt-hours annually, compared with an original projection of 1.7 million kilowatt-hours, or approximately 97% of expected production.
Combined, the two renewable energy sources have historically generated approximately 8 million kilowatt-hours annually, although production varies by year.
The difference in performance is significant. While the solar installation has largely met its production goals, the wind turbines have consistently generated less electricity than originally projected.
What is that electricity worth?
The financial value of Geneseo's alternative energy investments depends on how much electricity the projects generate, how much the utility saves by producing that electricity locally and how much it costs to build, finance and maintain the equipment.
Geneseo Municipal Utilities publishes an annual avoided-cost rate, which estimates the value of electricity the utility does not have to purchase, including certain related savings.
For 2026, that rate is 6.73 cents per kilowatt-hour, or $67.30 per megawatt-hour.
Using that rate, the wind turbines have generated approximately $7.21 million in electricity value over their operating life, compared with approximately $8.54 million in costs.
That leaves the wind project with a shortfall of approximately $1.34 million.
The solar installation also generates electricity that reduces the utility's need to purchase power. However, without incorporating the solar project's original investment, financing and maintenance costs, its contribution to the overall financial return cannot be fully evaluated.
There is another important limitation to the calculation.
The city's published avoided-cost rate is based partly on electricity prices during hours when solar panels generate power. Wind turbines operate at different times, including overnight, so their actual avoided-cost value could be higher or lower.
The city has not published a separate avoided-cost rate for wind generation.
As a result, the published rate provides a consistent basis for estimating electricity value, but it does not necessarily reflect the exact financial benefit of each renewable energy source.
When could the investment break even?
The wind portion of Geneseo's alternative energy investment originally cost approximately $7.14 million.
A $1.385 million grant from the Illinois Clean Energy Foundation helped cover the expense, and $5.875 million was financed through bonds.
The financial comparison uses payments on the financed amount rather than treating the grant as an additional expense.
The final wind bond payment is scheduled for February 2027. After that payment, the project could begin closing its remaining cost gap more quickly.
At historical average production, the turbines would generate approximately $430,000 in annual electricity value using the city's current avoided-cost rate.
Subtracting approximately $40,000 in annual routine maintenance leaves an estimated $390,000 per year toward recovering the remaining costs.
Under those assumptions, the wind project could reach break-even around 2029 or 2030.
If the turbines operate for another eight years at their historical average, their total electricity value could reach approximately $10.64 million against approximately $9.10 million in lifetime costs, leaving an estimated surplus of $1.54 million.
Those projections depend on the turbines returning to service, maintaining historical production levels and avoiding additional major expenses. They also assume the current avoided-cost rate remains applicable.
The solar installation's financial performance could change the break-even timeline for Geneseo's overall alternative energy portfolio.
Because solar production has remained close to its original projection, the project has provided a relatively predictable source of electricity generation. However, production performance alone does not establish whether the solar installation has recovered its costs.
A complete assessment of the city's alternative energy investment would require combining the financial records of both projects, including construction, financing, maintenance, insurance and electricity value.
Wind turbine repairs could change the financial picture
While Geneseo's solar installation has continued to produce electricity near its expected levels, the wind turbines are facing some of their most significant mechanical problems.
Turbine 1's generator failed April 30, 2026. Turbine 2 stopped operating July 22.
The resulting loss of production has made 2026 the worst year for wind generation in the city's available reports.
In June, city staff outlined three possible directions for the wind project: repair the existing turbines, remove them or replace them with newer equipment.
Each option carries financial implications for the city's broader alternative energy investment.
Repairing the turbines could allow Geneseo to continue generating electricity from equipment that is approaching the end of its original financing period.
Replacing them would require additional capital investment but could potentially improve electricity production and reliability.
Removing the turbines would eliminate future wind generation while potentially reducing maintenance and repair expenses.
The financial impact of those options remains uncertain.
The city has filed an insurance claim totaling $905,161 for Turbine 1's generator failure. A claim involving Turbine 2 is pending.
The city's routine wind maintenance budget is approximately $45,000 annually, but that amount does not account for major equipment replacements, crane rental, insurance costs or future decommissioning expenses.
Those costs could affect whether the wind project ultimately produces a financial surplus.
They also raise a broader question about how Geneseo should balance its renewable energy investments going forward, particularly given the difference between the wind and solar projects' production performance.
What remains unanswered?
Geneseo's alternative energy investments have produced measurable electricity benefits, but their financial performance has varied.
The solar installation has generated approximately 97% of its projected annual electricity output, while the wind turbines have averaged approximately 78% of their original production target.
The available financial records suggest the wind project could recover its costs within the next several years, provided the turbines return to service and avoid substantial additional expenses.
Before the City Council makes decisions about the future of the turbines, several questions remain unresolved.
The city has not yet provided final repair estimates, confirmed how much insurance will cover or published a wind-specific avoided-cost calculation.
A complete financial accounting of the solar project would also help establish the overall return on Geneseo's alternative energy investments.
That information would allow residents and city officials to evaluate not only whether the existing wind turbines are worth repairing, but also how the city's renewable energy investments compare financially.
For now, the available records show two different production outcomes: a solar installation that has largely met expectations and a wind project that has generated less electricity than projected, has not yet recovered its costs and faces significant repair decisions as its remaining debt approaches retirement.
Together, they represent a substantial investment in Geneseo's local electricity supply, with the final financial return still to be determined.
