What Will Winter Look Like in Geneseo? Forecasters See El Niño Playing a Major Role

by sarah demaranville

the geneseo current

NOAA says El Niño has a greater than 90% chance of becoming very strong this winter, while long-range forecasts differ on exactly what that will mean for Illinois

It is still too early to know how many inches of snow Geneseo will see this winter or when the season's biggest storm might arrive, but several long-range winter outlooks are now available — and they share one important feature.

El Niño is expected to have a major influence on the winter of 2026–27.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, The Weather Company and the Farmers’ Almanac have all released information about the coming winter. Their forecasts don't agree on every detail for the Midwest, but the developing El Niño provides a common thread.

For western Illinois, the current outlooks generally leave room for snow and sharp cold spells while suggesting that persistent cold and snow throughout the entire winter may be less likely.

NOAA: El Niño could reach historic strength

The most significant development comes from NOAA's Climate Prediction Center.

In its Sept. 10 update, NOAA reported that El Niño is strengthening and has a greater than 90% chance of becoming a very strong event during fall and winter 2026–27.

NOAA goes even further. The agency currently estimates a 75% chance that El Niño reaches a level during October through December that would exceed the strength of previous events in records dating to 1950, based on the Relative Oceanic Niño Index used by the Climate Prediction Center.

That doesn't mean a record-breaking winter is coming to Illinois.

El Niño describes a large-scale warming of waters in the tropical Pacific Ocean. That warming can alter atmospheric circulation and shift weather patterns thousands of miles away.

Historically, strong El Niño winters tend to favor a more active southern storm track while portions of the northern United States experience relatively warmer and drier conditions.

NOAA stresses that those historical tendencies are probabilities, not guarantees. Even an unusually strong El Niño does not determine the weather in a particular community or prevent periods of snow and severe cold.

NOAA's seasonal outlook leans warmer

NOAA's Climate Prediction Center is already publishing its long-range outlooks extending through the winter months.

Unlike a conventional weather forecast, NOAA's seasonal products don't attempt to predict the temperature or snowfall on a particular day months in advance. Instead, they estimate whether temperatures and precipitation over a three-month period are more likely to finish above, below or near their historical averages.

The agency says El Niño is playing an important role in those long-range forecasts. Its August seasonal discussion already favored above-normal temperatures across the Great Lakes during the fall and noted a tilt toward below-normal precipitation there. NOAA's outlooks now extend through December-January-February and beyond.

That distinction is important: NOAA is not predicting that Geneseo will have a snowless or warm winter. Seasonal averages can conceal considerable variation, including individual snowstorms and short periods of bitter cold.

The Weather Channel expects a warmer, drier Midwest

The Weather Channel's winter forecast, released Sept. 11, is more specific about how it expects the developing El Niño to affect the Midwest.

Its December-through-February outlook calls for a warmer and drier winter from the Midwest into portions of the northern Rockies and Pacific Northwest.

December stands out.

The Weather Channel expects an unusually warm beginning to winter in the Midwest and Great Lakes, with some of the largest departures from average temperatures occurring in this part of the country.

Above-average temperatures are expected to continue across much of the northern half of the country in January.

By February, the forecast allows colder air to become more established across northern portions of the country. Even then, however, the Midwest and Great Lakes are expected to trend warmer than average.

The reason again comes back largely to El Niño.

A strong El Niño typically strengthens the southern branch of the jet stream, increasing storm activity across the southern United States while leaving portions of the northern United States relatively warmer and drier.

That could limit overall snowfall opportunities in the Midwest, but it certainly doesn't eliminate them.

Farmers’ Almanac sees more ups and downs

The Farmers’ Almanac paints a somewhat different picture for Illinois.

Its 2026–27 forecast places Illinois in its Great Lakes and Midwest region and predicts temperatures averaging near normal overall, rather than the warmer winter forecast by The Weather Channel.

But “near normal” doesn't mean consistently moderate.

The Almanac expects fast-moving clipper systems, sudden cold snaps, snow squalls, blustery winds and brief periods of bitter cold. Those conditions are expected to be interrupted frequently by milder weather.

For places such as Chicago and Indianapolis, the publication specifically anticipates quick-moving systems capable of producing brief accumulating snow rather than prolonged snowstorms.

Geneseo isn't in one of the primary Great Lakes lake-effect snowbelts, so that portion of the Almanac's forecast is less applicable locally.

The Almanac also anticipates frequent cycles of thawing and freezing across the central United States, potentially producing rapidly changing road and field conditions.

The forecasts aren't as contradictory as they first appear

A warmer-than-average winter does not mean there won't be cold weather, and a drier-than-average winter does not mean there won't be significant snowstorms.

That's one reason long-range winter predictions can sound contradictory.

The Weather Channel sees the entire winter averaging warmer and drier across the Midwest.

The Farmers’ Almanac sees temperatures closer to normal overall, with pronounced swings between cold and mild periods.

NOAA provides probabilities rather than a specific narrative for Geneseo, while emphasizing that an exceptionally strong El Niño could increase the likelihood of weather patterns historically associated with the phenomenon.

All three leave plenty of opportunity for individual winter storms.

A week of bitter cold can occur during an otherwise warmer-than-average winter. Likewise, one major snowstorm can produce a substantial portion of a community's seasonal snowfall even during a relatively dry winter.

Why NOAA's forecast is different from the Almanac

There is also an important difference in how these forecasts are produced.

NOAA's Climate Prediction Center uses observations of the atmosphere and oceans, multiple climate models, historical patterns and large-scale climate signals such as El Niño to develop probabilistic seasonal outlooks.

The Farmers’ Almanac uses a proprietary forecasting method that it says incorporates natural cycles, solar activity, lunar influences and historical weather patterns. The publication says those calculations are now supplemented by modern meteorological information, satellite observations, computer modeling and analysis of large-scale atmospheric and ocean patterns. Its complete formula is not publicly disclosed.

The Weather Channel relies on modern meteorological models, climate patterns and professional meteorological analysis for its seasonal outlook.

For that reason, the three products shouldn't necessarily be treated as three equivalent scientific forecasts. NOAA's outlook provides the federal government's official climate forecast, while the Farmers’ Almanac offers its own proprietary long-range prediction.

What does all of this mean for Geneseo?

For now, perhaps the most useful conclusion is that there isn't strong evidence pointing toward an exceptionally snowy or relentlessly cold winter in western Illinois.

The Weather Channel leans warmer and drier for the Midwest. The Farmers’ Almanac expects something closer to normal temperatures but with quick snow events, cold outbreaks and frequent warmer breaks.

Meanwhile, NOAA has identified the much larger weather story that could influence both: an El Niño that is already strengthening and has a greater than 90% chance of becoming very strong this fall and winter.

Exactly how that translates to Geneseo won't become clear until much closer to individual weather events.

Seasonal forecasting can provide clues about the background pattern months in advance. It cannot tell residents whether there will be six inches of snow on a Tuesday in January.

So far, though, the signals point more toward a changeable winter — potentially warmer and somewhat drier overall, but still capable of delivering quick snowstorms and sharp blasts of Midwestern cold.

Sources

NOAA Climate Prediction Center seasonal outlooks
The Weather Company 2026–27 winter outlook
Farmers’ Almanac 2026–27 winter forecast

Geneseo FFA Members Compete, Learn, and Lead Throughout July

Written by Hannah Wildemuth 

VoAg Fair

On July 2, members had the opportunity to compete at the Section 3 Vocational Agriculture Fair at the Cambridge Fairgrounds. They competed in various livestock and crop areas.

Members showed their animals based on their conformation, overall balance, muscling, and the way they move. They also competed in showmanship classes where they were judged on their ability to handle, control, and present their animal. The crops were judged using a separate criteria of quality, cleanliness, maturity, and the condition of the crop. They had fun showing off their projects!

Horse Fair

Annabelle, Hannah, and Ashlynn competed at the Section 3 VoAg Horse Fair at Black Hawk East. They had the opportunity to show off how well they can execute patterns, the conformation of their horses, and how well they can perform different gaits.

They started the morning by showing their horses in halter classes, presenting their horse to be inspected by a judge on their conformation and the quality of their movement. Afterwards they competed in pattern classes where they performed different transitions, pivots, and the ability to effectively communicate with their horse. They were in pleasure classes where they had to smoothly transition from the walk, trot, and canter. They had a great day competing!

Leadership Camp

Henry, Lydia, and Ella had a fun week at the Illinois FFA Leadership Camp. They learned how to be an effective leader and how to better communicate with others.

They were put into groups for the week where they met FFA members from all around the state. They worked together in these groups to complete an obstacle course that taught them about how effective communication is essential when working in a team. These groups also competed in ag olympics that taught them how trust is important when working with others and how different leadership styles impact a team.

FFA coverage is proudly sponsored by Valley Insurance.

John Deere Settlement Expands Repair Options for Illinois Farmers

A new federal settlement could change the way many Illinois farmers repair their John Deere equipment, giving owners and independent repair shops access to software and diagnostic tools that were previously available only through authorized dealerships.

The agreement, announced this week by the Federal Trade Commission (FTC) and attorneys general from five states—including Illinois—resolves an antitrust lawsuit alleging Deere unfairly restricted repairs by limiting access to critical software and electronic repair resources. Deere has denied wrongdoing but agreed to the settlement.

For farmers, the biggest impact may be greater flexibility.

Under the 10-year agreement, Deere must make available to farmers and independent repair providers the same repair resources it provides to its authorized dealers. That includes the ability to:

• Read, clear and reset electronic fault codes.

• Reprogram electronic components after they're replaced.

• Restart equipment following certain emissions-related shutdowns.

• Access technical manuals, troubleshooting information and repair databases.

The settlement also requires Deere to provide future repair tools once they become widely available within its dealer network and prohibits the company from retaliating against customers or independent repair businesses that choose to perform their own repairs. The FTC and participating states will oversee compliance for at least 10 years.

Why It Matters

For many farmers, equipment downtime during planting or harvest can have significant financial consequences. Modern farm equipment often relies on proprietary software that has required dealership access for certain diagnostics and repairs.

Supporters of the settlement say expanding access to repair software could reduce delays, lower repair costs and give farmers more control over equipment they own. Independent repair shops may also be better positioned to compete with dealerships for certain repairs.

Henry County farmer Curt Jacobs said the ability to choose who repairs equipment—or perform repairs yourself when possible—is becoming increasingly important as dealership labor costs continue to rise.

"Having that ability to hire somebody to come out and do repairs—or do it yourself if you have the technical abilities—is huge because the dealership costs are so high anymore," Jacobs said. "There's definitely ways to save money if you're able to do it yourself or hire a private repairman."

The agreement applies specifically to John Deere agricultural equipment. While it does not require Deere to provide repair resources free of charge, it does require the company to make them available on fair and reasonable terms.

Local Impact

Agriculture plays a major role in Henry County's economy, and John Deere equipment is widely used throughout the region. The settlement could provide local producers with additional repair options while reducing the need to rely exclusively on authorized dealerships for certain electronic repairs.

Jacobs said minimizing equipment downtime remains one of the biggest priorities for farmers during planting and harvest.

"If we're in one of our main seasons—planting or harvest—a machine being down is huge," he said. "It can cost us days of production, and if weather moves in, those delays can have an even greater impact."

He also believes the issue is more nuanced than many people realize. Jacobs noted that John Deere has made diagnostic software available to farmers through a lease program for several years, though many producers may not have been aware it existed. He said the larger limitation has been access to software and firmware updates, which remain restricted and continue to require dealer involvement.

"The tools have been available," Jacobs said. "The bigger issue is that farmers and independent repair shops still can't perform software and firmware updates, so there are still limits on what can be repaired outside the dealership."

Looking Ahead

The settlement is viewed as one of the most significant developments in the national "Right to Repair" movement, which advocates for consumers' ability to repair the products they own. While the agreement currently applies only to Deere, many industry observers believe it could influence how other agricultural equipment manufacturers approach repair access in the future.

Sources: Federal Trade Commission; Associated Press; Reuters; Interview with Curt Jacobs, Henry County farmer; The Geneseo Current.

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From State Finals to Flower Bouquets: A Month of Growth for Geneseo FFA

What a superb kickoff to a new FFA year! This month’s recap will cover our many successes in the month of May, including District 1 Public Speaking, State Parliamentary Procedure/Conduct of Chapter Meetings, Points Chart Trip, Adopt-A-Highway, SAE Tour, and our Bend Don’t Break Event.

District 1 Public Speaking

Dawsyn, Kolby, and Faith participated in the District 1 Public Speaking LDE. This contest provided members with an excellent opportunity to strengthen their communication skills, build confidence speaking in front of others, and further their understanding of important agricultural topics.

May Adopt-A-Highway Cleanup

Dawsyn McDonald competed in Extemporaneous Speaking, which means she was required to prepare and deliver a speech on an agricultural issue within a limited amount of preparation time. Kolby Causemaker competed in Prepared Speaking, which required her to research an agricultural topic, write an original speech, and present it before a panel of judges. Faith Kuster competed in Creed Speaking, which asks participants to recite and interpret the FFA Creed while answering questions about its meaning and purpose.

We are incredibly proud of these members for representing our chapter at District and continuing to grow as well-spoken leaders and communicators!

State Parliamentary Procedure/Conduct of Chapter Meetings

Both our Parli and Conduct teams competed at the state level on May 7th. It was a great experience for both teams and a fun way to wrap up the contest season as the school year came to an end.

The Parliamentary Procedure team included Chairperson Hannah Wildemuth, Floorperson 1 Dawsyn McDonald, Floorperson 2 Annabelle Betcher, Floorperson 3 Jackson Frank, Floorperson 5 Jacey Gehl, and Floorperson 6 Ella Schaaf.

The Conduct of Chapter Meetings team consisted of President Faith Kuster, Vice President Ashlynn Chamberlain, Secretary Delaney Killian, Reporter Faith Schaver, Treasurer Lili Marshall, Sentinel Molly Wannemacher, and Advisor Henry Dwyer.

We are very proud of these teams for earning the opportunity to compete at the state level!

Points Chart Trip

Every year, members with the most participation points are invited to go on an educational (but fun!) trip with their fellow members at the top of the points chart. This year, Living Lands and Waters welcomed us onto their “floating classroom,” the Mississippi River Institute. 

Members learned about the founding of Living Lands and Waters, how barges operate, and the many career opportunities available on the river. They also heard from a guest speaker, an Illinois DNR fisheries biologist, who shared insights about fisheries management and careers in the field. It was a fun day filled with learning and exploration. 

Adopt-A-Highway

Bend Don’t Break Grant - Petals for Positivity at the Local Motive

Members wanting to use their time for good helped out at our May Adopt-A-Highway event. Cleaning up everything from plastic bottles to vehicle debris, members worked hard to help keep our community clean. It was a great way to give back while spending time with fellow FFA members.

SAE Tour

Members invited their families to come experience and learn about SAE projects throughout our chapter. Fueled by Kim Chamberlain’s famous cinnamon rolls, members carpooled across Geneseo and got to see where their friends spend so much of their time and hard work. A few stops included Kat Zelnio Quarter Horses with Annabelle Betcher, Pink Prairie Gardens with Jack Gehling, and a cookout at Frank Pumpkin Farm to end the day. It was a great opportunity to learn more about the diversity of SAE projects within our chapter, and we look forward to doing the SAE Tour again in the future!

Bend Don't Break Event

With the help of the Bend Don't Break Grant, we were able to spread Petals for Positivity throughout our community. Members put together beautiful bouquets to hand out to community members on Thursday morning before school outside of The Localmotive. Each person walking by was offered two bouquets of flowers, one to keep and one to give away to keep spreading positivity. It was a simple but meaningful way to spread kindness and keep positivity flowing throughout our community.

Henry County Fair Returns With New Events, Family Favorites, and a Celebration of Agriculture

As soon as one Henry County Fair ends, planning for the next one begins.

According to fair organizers, the volunteer board typically takes only a month or two off after fair week before discussions begin for the following year's event. That work continues throughout the year, with volunteers contributing countless hours to organize exhibits, entertainment, grandstand events, livestock shows, vendors, and attractions.

"It's amazing how quickly fair week arrives," organizers said. "People may not realize how much planning and volunteer effort goes into making the fair happen."

New Attractions for 2026

Visitors returning this year will find several new attractions added to the schedule.

Among the new events are Backseat Driving and Lawn Mower Barrel Racing during Family Night, along with School Bus Demolition events on Saturday evening.

While the fair continues to offer many longtime traditions, organizers are always looking for ways to introduce new experiences that appeal to families and keep the event fresh for returning visitors.

The Biggest Crowd-Pleasers

Several events are expected to draw large crowds throughout the week.

The Outlaw Truck and Tractor Pull remains one of the fair's signature attractions, bringing powerful machines and plenty of noise to the grandstand.

The Demolition Derby is also expected to be a major draw, continuing a tradition that attracts fans eager to watch vehicles collide in competition.

The Backroad Truck and Tractor Pull is another anticipated favorite.

"People love the pulls and how loud they are," organizers said. "And everyone loves to see a good car smash into another one."

The Best Day for Families

For families trying to choose just one day to attend, organizers point to Family Day as the best value and experience.

Family Day features free grandstand admission and a lineup of activities designed specifically for children and families. Events include the Pedal Pull, Egg Toss, Sack Races, Pig and Chicken Scrambles, and the new Backseat Driving competition.

The combination of free entertainment and hands-on activities makes it one of the most popular days of the fair.

Fair Food Favorites

No county fair would be complete without great food, and Henry County has no shortage of options.

Among the longtime favorites is Malone's Taffy, which continues to be a popular stop for fairgoers each year.

The Henry County Pork Producers stand remains another must-visit destination, serving what many local residents consider one of the county's most iconic fair foods—the pork chop sandwich.

Visitors are also encouraged to support local 4-H members by stopping at the 4-H food stand, while exploring the many other food vendors located throughout the grounds.

"There are so many delicious options," organizers said.

What Visitors Should Know

Fair organizers encourage attendees to come prepared for a full day of activities.

Comfortable clothing and shoes are highly recommended, especially for those planning to spend several hours walking the grounds.

Daily admission to the fairgrounds is $5. Grandstand admission ranges from $10 to $20 depending on the event.

Beyond the headline attractions, organizers encourage visitors to spend time exploring livestock shows, exhibits, carnival rides, and educational displays throughout the week.

A Continuing Need for Volunteers

Despite the fair's popularity, one challenge remains consistent from year to year: finding volunteers.

Organizers say recruiting enough volunteers to assist during fair week—particularly for grandstand operations—continues to be one of the biggest hurdles facing the organization.

As a volunteer-driven event, the fair depends heavily on community members willing to donate their time to ensure everything runs smoothly.

More Than Just Entertainment

For many residents, the Henry County Fair represents far more than rides and grandstand events.

Organizers see the fair as an opportunity to bring communities together while celebrating the county's agricultural roots. It also provides a showcase for the hard work and accomplishments of local 4-H and FFA members, who spend months preparing exhibits and caring for livestock.

The fairgrounds also serve as a gathering place where families, friends, neighbors, and former residents reconnect each year.

A Reason to Come Back

For those who haven't attended the Henry County Fair in several years, organizers say there has never been a better time to return.

Visitors will notice improvements throughout the grounds, including newer buildings and ongoing facility upgrades. Combined with well-maintained grounds, new attractions, longtime traditions, and community spirit, the fair continues to evolve while preserving the qualities that have made it a summertime staple for generations.

"Come see what we've done at the fairgrounds," organizers said. "Take a look at the updates, enjoy the atmosphere, and experience everything the fair has to offer."

The 2026 Henry County Fair promises a week filled with agriculture, entertainment, food, family activities, and community traditions—offering something for visitors of every age.

See the fair guide book or visit the website for more information.